8 Hard Truths for Democrats
The party must reinvent itself if it wants to win back what it's lost.
Voters clearly have a long memory when it comes to inflation, perhaps more than any other issue. The Biden administration was far too dismissive of concerns over inflation. Yes, wages outpaced price increases for most Americans in recent years. Yes, the United States has the best economy in the world. And yes, inflation came down faster and further here than anywhere else. Unfortunately, those weren’t winning talking points when people were angry about spending $130 at the grocery store instead of the $100 the same trip cost in 2019. It’s what made Joe Biden so unpopular and why Kamala Harris was at a natural disadvantage as the sitting vice president.
I’m not sure if the educated professional class fits neatly into a coalition with any other group, and that’s a frightening prospect for Democrats. I suspect that nearly everyone reading this has a college degree. Most of your friends and family likely have one, too. The bubble we live in often obscures the fact that just 38 percent of Americans ages 25 and older can say the same. You simply cannot win national elections on a consistent basis when you draw your core constituency from such a relatively small group, especially as those people increasingly cluster in states that reliably vote blue.
The critical question coming out of this election is whether the rightward shift of working-class voters, particularly among Black and Latino men, is a historic realignment or a phenomenon unique to Donald Trump. Will JD Vance prove as formidable among Mexicans in South Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, Puerto Ricans in Central Florida, or young Black men in the Bronx in four years? It’s certainly plausible, but I have some doubts. A large gap remains between Trump’s favorability rating and that of Vance, another reminder that the president-elect’s reputation as a businessman and provocateur is not necessarily transferrable.
Biden’s legacy is in ruins, and he bears significant responsibility for Harris’s loss. While historians may give Biden high marks for the country’s recovery from the pandemic, his landmark climate and infrastructure laws, and NATO’s revival in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the core premise of his 2020 campaign and presidency—that America was getting a steady hand after the chaotic Trump era—has been shattered. In insisting that he run for reelection, Biden passed up an opportunity to serve as a bridge to a new generation of party leaders. His hubris was reckless and clearly abetted by a small circle of longtime aides, none of whom should hold sway in Democratic politics again. Public backlash over inflation and immigration was going to drag down any Democrat this cycle, but an open primary would’ve allowed the eventual nominee to distance themselves from Biden and mount a proper campaign on a normal timeline.
Democrats have nominated bad or incapable messengers in three consecutive cycles. That trend must end in 2028. Good politics is storytelling. Good politics is narrative. Good politics is refusing to let campaign surrogates speak on your behalf. What did Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris have in common? They were each well qualified, professional, and technocratic in their approach to governing. The problem for Democrats is that the three also shared a glaring weakness: struggles with media and messaging. Clinton’s policy brilliance didn’t translate to good soundbites. Biden’s age hindered his ability to communicate effectively. Harris was sharp on the debate stage, but rarely sat for interviews. For all their flaws—and there were many—Bill Clinton and Barack Obama each won two terms, in part, because they were seen as authentic and relatable, both adept at setting the terms of the campaign.
Everything Democrats think they know about media strategy should be thrown out the window. The View won’t cut it anymore. Nor will Jimmy Kimmel, Pod Save America, or Oprah. Joe Rogan, love him or hate him, does unimaginable numbers. Democrats can no longer dismiss platforms or personalities who they find slightly objectionable or adversarial. You must be willing to tell your story wherever voters are, not just in the forums you already dominate. It’s remarkably easy to demonize an entire party if it never shows up. The other lesson here is that theater matters, however silly or scripted it appears in the moment. Trump’s visit to McDonald’s, mocked by the left, produced one of the most recognizable images of the campaign. The man knows his audience and knows what that picture would say to them.
A political party is not entitled to anyone’s vote. In the weeks after the election, it was common to hear pundits on the left express their disbelief over Trump’s gains among Black and Latino voters. How could voters of color abandon Harris? How could they vote against their own interests? That line of thinking is myopic and self-defeating. The Democratic Party has become dangerously sclerotic, taking important constituencies for granted and failing to recognize that a strong national economy was not a uniform experience for all Americans—especially amid COVID shutdowns and soaring costs.
Blue cities and states have little to brag about—and that’s a big problem for Democrats. The best things about living in California—the beaches, the food, the state university system—have nothing to do with decades of Democratic governance. The same can be said of Illinois, New York, and Washington. Here in Seattle, a long-overdue light rail extension is now a running joke. San Francisco makes it nearly impossible to build new housing. Los Angeles and Portland have dramatically increased spending to end homelessness with very little progress to show for it. Chicago Public Schools lurch from crisis to crisis and the city has massive pension liabilities. The point is that while Democrats can harp on Project 2025 all they want, they must show that they’re capable of governing and delivering tangible results. It’s no coincidence that four of the five states with the biggest percentage swings toward Trump were New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California. - MS